Calculate your odds of passing any prop firm challenge
This free prop firm simulator runs thousands of attempts against each firm's real rules and shows your real pass rate. Enter your strategy's stats once to see your odds, expected cost and time to funded.
In short
- How does the prop firm pass rate calculator work?
- The simulator runs a Monte Carlo analysis: it replays your strategy thousands of times using your win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade, against each firm's real profit target and drawdown rules, and reports the share of runs that pass. It also shows your expected cost, time to funded, and exactly what to change to hit your target pass rate.
- What trading stats do I need?
- Four: your win rate, your average reward-to-risk, your risk per trade, and your trades per month. Trades per month matters just as much, since it drives how fast you reach the target and how hard a trailing drawdown tightens against you. You can read all four off your trading journal or your last 50 to 100 trades.
Your edge
Evaluation rules
Phase 1 of 2. Later phases are simulated too.
Leave 0 if the firm has no daily loss limit.
Optional. 0 = none.
Advanced settings (optional)
Enter your inputs, then run the simulation.
Based on thousands of simulated attempts using your edge against these exact rules.
Attempts & cost
Time to funded
How it works
Your stats
Win rate, risk:reward, risk per trade and trades per month, straight from your journal.
Real rules
Each firm's profit target, drawdown and daily loss, for the challenge type and account size you pick.
Thousands of runs
We replay your strategy thousands of times against the challenge, trade by trade.
Your odds
See your pass rate, cost, time to funded and exactly what to change to hit your target.
Read the full explanation
What a Monte Carlo simulation actually does
A Monte Carlo simulation answers a question a single calculation cannot: given randomness, how often does this turn out well? Instead of computing one average result, it replays the same scenario thousands of times, letting chance play out differently each run, then counts the outcomes. Think of it like rolling dice. You cannot predict a single roll, but if you roll ten thousand times you learn the true odds of every result. The simulation does exactly that, only the roll is one of your trades and the result is whether you passed the challenge.
This is also why running the simulation again with identical inputs may produce a slightly different pass rate. That is expected behaviour: each run draws a new independent sample of random outcomes, so the reported figure is an estimate that varies marginally around the true probability.
Why it fits prop firm challenges so well
A prop firm challenge is a race between two lines: you are trying to reach a profit target before you hit a maximum drawdown or a daily loss limit. Your strategy boils down to a few numbers — how often you win, how big your winners are versus your losers, how much you risk per trade, and how many trades you take. The simulation plays out a full attempt one trade at a time, checking after every trade whether you have hit the target, broken a limit, or neither. The same strategy can pass easily at one firm and struggle at another purely because of the rules.
Why it gives statistical confidence
A single attempt is mostly luck. You could have a profitable strategy and still bust from one bad losing streak, or scrape a pass with a mediocre one. The key thing the simulation captures that a simple expected-return calculation misses is sequence risk: the order of your wins and losses matters, because a rough patch early can break a drawdown limit before your edge ever shows up. Averages hide that; thousands of simulated paths reveal it.
Realistic expectations
A pass rate from this tool is an informed estimate, and it is only as good as the numbers you put in. It assumes your win rate and reward-to-risk stay roughly constant and that you risk a consistent amount per trade — numbers that should come from a proper backtest over a meaningful sample of trades. Once your numbers are solid, our Kelly criterion calculator can turn them into an optimal risk per trade.
Prop firm simulator: frequently asked questions
How does the prop firm pass rate calculator work?
The simulator runs a Monte Carlo analysis: it replays your strategy thousands of times using your win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade, against each firm's real profit target and drawdown rules, and reports the share of runs that pass. It also shows your expected cost, time to funded, and exactly what to change to hit your target pass rate.
What trading stats do I need?
Four: your win rate, your average reward-to-risk, your risk per trade, and your trades per month. Trades per month matters just as much, since it drives how fast you reach the target and how hard a trailing drawdown tightens against you. You can read all four off your trading journal or your last 50 to 100 trades.
What does sample size mean?
It is how many trades your win rate is based on. A win rate measured over 30 trades is far less reliable than one measured over 300, so the calculator treats a small sample as more uncertain and a large sample as steadier. The bigger your real, tested sample, the more you can trust the pass rate.
What is the difference between static and trailing drawdown?
A static drawdown is a fixed floor below your starting balance. A trailing drawdown rises as your equity makes new highs, so profits tighten your margin for error. FTMO uses a static drawdown, while many futures firms such as Apex and Topstep use trailing or end-of-day trailing. The simulator applies each firm's actual type.
How accurate is the pass rate?
It is a statistical estimate from thousands of simulated runs on the numbers you enter. Real evaluations also involve slippage, fees and psychology, so treat the result as a strong, honest estimate rather than a guarantee.
Is the simulator free?
Yes. It is completely free with no signup: enter your stats and see your odds of passing before you pay an evaluation fee.
Educational tool only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Pass-rate estimates come from a simplified model and the stats you enter; they are not predictions or financial advice. Firm rules and prices change — always confirm current details on the firm's own site before you buy. Some links are partner links, which never change the results the tool produces.